The Deal

I’ve now read a few things that have heralded the Frankenstein coalition that’s not a coalition but is a coalition between the SNP and Greens as a serious challenge for Scottish Labour. An article in The Scotsman went as far to label it Anas Sarwar’s “toughest challenge in politics” that “should strike fear into the party”. Forgive me for not trembling in my Vans at the prospect of the Nats and mini nats teaming up. In actuality, I think this deal is awful for Scotland, but for Scottish Labour it is a real opportunity to move to the centre of Scottish politics and leave the SNP tainted, damaged and wilting on the left. The real question is, does Scottish Labour have the courage and desire to seize this opportunity?

For all the romantic talk about Scotland and our history, we’re actually a fairly moderate country. We consistently oppose extremism and vote for stability. We can be rather heartless and unsentimental about our politics and are happy to consign a party to the dustbin until they get the message. The Greens are extremists. Say it again with me because they seem to have attainted an undeserved reputation as well meaning wee souls. The Greens are extremists. They believe basic economic progress is bad and seem not only happy, but eager, to catapult us back to the stone age – when they’re not obsessing over identity politics. As Andy Wightman revealed in his blog, they are fiercely intolerant of debate with a nasty streak running through the party. That is the party Nicola Sturgeon has saw fit to bring into government. Once the hard task of governing begins, I hope and suspect that their veneer of respectability will dissipate and Scotland will be left scratching our collective heads and wondering when we signed up for this madness.

This is where it will get tricky for the SNP and potentially fatal for Nicola Sturgeon. The SNP will be wedded to a party that alienates more than it persuades. Nicola Sturgeon’s personal brand will be permanently tarnished. Her political judgement will rightly be questioned and her reputation for decisive leadership will be damaged as the Greens brief with glee about their influence on altering policy (see the debacle over Cambo oilfield). Many voters who perhaps voted more for Sturgeon than the SNP itself will not take kindly to this. Which brings us to Sturgeon’s logic for this move. Is she wanting a fall guy for her now traditional failures? Is she simply wanting to virtue signal with a green government for when COP26 rolls into town? Is she wanting the Greens on board for their unblinking support on all issues gender and sex as she seeks desperately to find a political legacy that will secure her place on the cover of an international magazine? Is she rolling the dice one final time for independence? I honestly don’t know. If it is about securing separation then I cannot think of a worse party than the Greens to make the key to it all, Middle Scotland, crave the sanity and stability of the UK. If the Greens do succeed in dragging the SNP to the left then Scottish Labour needs to capitalise.

Labour’s Opportunity

This provides a big opportunity for Scottish Labour. Finally, there will be a tasty slice of political real estate available in the centre of Scottish politics. Long out in the cold, this is a key moment for Labour. To paraphrase Eminem; will we capture it, or just let it slip? If you’re a betting man then you opt for the latter. However, with Anas Sarwar in charge, there is hope that he has the political brain and personal charisma to realise this. Needless to say, I have some completely unsolicited advice…

Accept the challenge is enormous – by the time of the next Holyrood election Scottish Labour will have been out of power for almost twenty years. No party has a right to exist and I’m often genuinely shocked when I have talked to members, activists and MSPs that they still don’t realise just how utterly irrelevant Scottish Labour is.

Change the party – before we can even think of changing the country we have to change the party. Twenty years is an insane amount of time to be out of power and we need to accept the electorates (repeated) diagnosis that we aren’t fit for power. Changing the leader isn’t enough, we need to restart as essentially a new party. New attitude, new culture, new strategy, new policies, new people, new branding. New everything. Change is the medicine.

Decide why Scottish Labour exists – what is the purpose of Scottish Labour in 2021? Genuinely? I don’t know. We have MSPs tweeting about abolishing the monarchy, abolishing private schools, socialist republics and the former leader expressing solidarity with Ken Loach. I have prominent activists calling me a Red Tory or telling me to join the Tories for daring to express opinions outside the cosy groupthink. We don’t seem serious about governing, of challenging ourselves and embracing new ideas. We don’t seem to have any coherent strategy or targets. I humbly suggest that needs thought.

To me it is simple why Labour should exist. Compassion, aspiration and duty. Compassion for those who need help. Aspiration in recognising that people want to progress in life and celebrating the success of those already doing well. Duty to our country and communities. Recognising the relationship between the individual and state can’t be a one way street and that citizens have duties as well as rights.

Accept the landscape has changed & target a new coalition of voters – politics and the world have changed. The cold fact is that we haven’t changed with it. We seem to still believe in some homogenous concept of the working class and romantic notions of class struggle. That we will somehow unite them and lead them to a glorious victory. This obviously no longer exists (if it ever did). The back of our membership cards states, “by the strength of our common endeavour we achieve more than we achieve alone”. It is important to recognise this and the importance of community in achieving collective success. In saying that, we also need to celebrate the importance of the individual in pursuing their aspiration. That can’t be faked. Voters can detect bullshit a mile away which is why we need wholesale cultural change within the party.

We need to pivot away from our self-imposed ideological prison on the left. It’s simple maths that the majority of voters are to be found somewhere in the centre. Not on the left. By choosing ideology we cut ourselves off from people who should be natural Labour supporters. Take Labour’s recent opposition of Cambo oilfield. We secured a day of good headlines and put Sturgeon on the spot. But at what cost? We have now shot ourselves in the foot in the North East and locked ourselves into a position that frankly doesn’t make much sense. Whether Cambo goes ahead or not won’t make any substantial difference to our oil requirements. We will simply be importing it rather than producing it. Are we really proposing throwing Scottish jobs on the scrapheap just to impress a president who couldn’t even pick up the phone to tell us he was fleeing Afghanistan?

Outflanking on the left doesn’t work. This may be controversial, but we will never be left enough for some and chasing people down the rabbit hole, whether it be independence diehards or climate obsessives, will only take us further away from people whose vote we have a good chance of winning. If we soften our independence stance will a solid Yes voter vote for us over the SNP? No. If we ditch economic logic in pursuit of climate policy will someone whose burning passion is climate change vote for us over the Greens? Probably not. We should certainly be a big tent, open to all, but we need to be realistic. Know our strategic position, don’t be tempted or intimidated to stray from it and target our coalition with a laser focus.

Put voters, not activists first – this is simple, or should be simple but is deceptively difficult – especially in the age of social media where MSPs and party leaders will receive instant reaction to their latest policy or position. What is popular with voters will often not be popular with activists. What voters may not like but know to be necessary will be resisted for an eternity by activists. A leader will have a quieter day and bask in easy adulation if they follow the party, but it will put them further away from power. Voters should always come first.

Take risks. Be surprising – we’re third. The time for risk and flexibility is now. Why shouldn’t Scottish Labour cut taxes? Why shouldn’t we scrap “free” tuition? Why shouldn’t we reform public services so they serve the public and not the other way around? Why shouldn’t we make crime and the consequences of it a key part of our offering? The only ones who benefit from our rigidity and predictability are our opponents.

Own the future – it’s now a cliche but it’s true. We should be constantly looking to the future to solve problems. How can technology fix the NHS backlog? The court backlog? How will technology change education? What impact will automation have on the workforce? The party who is ahead of the game on this will see electoral benefits.